Denver’s seasonal real estate slowdown could be forecasting a hot summer next year

Denver’s seasonal real estate slowdown could be forecasting a hot summer next year

It’s the time of year again where we talk about seasonal adjustments to the Denver housing market. If you’ve been paying attention to our monthly stats updates you might have an idea of where this is heading. Lets dive in…

MEDIAN SALE PRICE

Denver’s single family median sales price hit a record high in June peaking at $518,750. At first glance, you’re probably thinking that we’re heading into our seasonal adjustment — which you’d be correct to assume. One thing we will be keeping an eye on is how far we dip down during the winter months which could set us up for a really strong summer season.

 

Sale prices for two-bedroom homes are down a bit this year, while one and three-bedroom homes are posting a modest increase. The real story is four-bedroom homes, up $80k from 2018! The most likely reason: growing families and limited 4+ bedroom inventory are pushing prices sky-high.

INTEREST RATES

 

The downward trend in interest rates continues. In fact, it has dropped every month this year; almost an entire point since last November. We’ve been spoiled over the last decade with steady, sub 4.5% interest rates. While we witnessed a small taste of rising rates early last year, people aren’t taking low interest rates for granted anymore. Buyers want to capitalize before the trend reverses again.

 

DAYS ON MARKET

It’s still a seller’s market in Denver, but buyers are able to take a little more time to decide on a home. We would to expect to see increased inventory until the first of the year as buyer’s take a break from their search during the holiday months.

 

INVENTORY

Inventory is slooowly continuing to increase as the year progresses. The real test is whether the trend will continue next spring. Will sellers sitting on the sideline for the last several years finally be confident they can find a replacement home after they sell?

 

The good news is that active listings are up compared to the previous four years. The bad news is that we need even more in order for it to have a significant impact on home affordability along the Front Range. We still have a ways to go before we get to a balanced housing market.

 

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