Are signs pointing to a cooling market?

Are signs pointing to a cooling market?

 

Denver Real Estate Market Snapshot - September 2018

All “statistical” signs are pointing to a slowing housing market, with one exception. From the snapshot above one things sticks out pretty clearly: median prices are up. Lets dive into things and see what’s driving our real estate market.

INTEREST RATES

If you’ve been following the Federal Reserve or listening to the news it shouldn’t be a big surprise to hear that rates are creeping up. Since July they increased by .13% (and .82% since Sept of 2017). If you are timing rates, now is the time to lock. If you wait, it will most likely cost you!

 

Now for a little more context… we’ve been really spoiled over the last five years with sub 4.5% rates! Just like when you are at an epic party — it has to end sometime, right?!

Ok, now we have it dialed way back to 1972. We are still in historically low territory compared to the last four decades. Just ask anyone that bought a home in the early 1980’s what they think of today’s rates. #perspective

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

As you can imagine, homes are taking longer to sell these days. The number of days on market has been creeping up since June and it’s looking to mirror the seasonal slow down we see each year that peaks in the December/January time frame. We’ll be keeping a close eye, after the first of the year, to see if it corrects or if it will push up even further.

For the six counties we track, we are up on all but one comparing this September to last year’s.

Does anybody remember when homes consistently took 80 plus days to sell? The seasonal adjustment mimics an EKG read out doesn’t it? The thing to watch is the next uptick, how steep it goes and when (or if) the correction downward starts.

INVENTORY

We’re starting to see a sharp increase in inventory over previous months. The last time inventory levels were above two months was late 2013. Regardless of this change, we are still deep in a seller’s market and in need of surplus inventory to get us closer to a neutral market. Are we on our way? Definitely worth keeping an eye on.

The 10,000 foot view shows housing inventory unchanged and Denver still neck deep in a seller’s market.

But across the board, all Denver Metro counties are slowly starting to add to their housing inventory.

Even though housing inventory is on the rise, it doesn’t actually mean there are more homes for sale. What? Denver and Broomfield both have an increase in inventory, yet have less homes for sale than 12 months ago and less people buying those homes. Increasing prices could be the culprit.

MEDIAN PRICE RANGE

Here’s where things go a little off script. With interest rates up, inventory up, and days on market up you would anticipate median sales prices going down wouldn’t you? If you look at the previous 12 months in Denver County chart you can see that attached and detached homes are both trending in opposite directions. Attached homes have pushed up harder than detached homes have pushed prices down, netting a small monthly gain. The good news: if you are looking for a detached single family home, now is a great time to take advantage of the downward trend in prices!

All Denver Metro counties continued to see an increase in home prices over the last 12 month period.

Sellers cashing out the Denver market continue to rejoice, while buyers long for 2008 pricing to return.

 

 

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