The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas
Source: Laura Kusisto of the Wall Street Journal
Our nation’s economy experienced one of the strongest six month periods in decades during Q2 and Q3 of the past year. Yet, the housing market grew increasingly stagnant. The nationwide slowdown is led by the the same cities that have had the strongest growth following the previous recession: Seattle, Denver, New York City, Boston and the Bay Area. Wall Street Journal reporter Laura Kusisto states this decline as “the longest slump in more than four years.” Kusisto dives into further data, graphics and stories of how market pressures have affected new people in the full article.
Denver’s Green Space is Becoming a Concrete Metropolis
Source: Bruce Finley of the Denver Post
A quick glance at this article’s title might merit a smug “duh” or “of course.” As a city grows, green space almost always disappears. However, based on research from The Denver Post, this is a critical issue for Denver residents. Based on aerial imaging and historical trends, Denver’s green space could drop to 30% of the total city by 2040. Only New York and a few “mega cities” exceed the rate at which Denver’s green space is being developed over. An arguably more important metric is the fact that Denver ranks last among major U.S. cities in park space as a percentage of total area. City planners and the Denver community as a whole are going to have to get creative to prevent these grey projections from becoming a concrete reality.
Dispelling the myth: Downtown Denver is not overbuilt
Source: Matt Vance of the Colorado Real Estate Journal
Standing on a downtown balcony, cranes are visible in every line of sight. But just how fast are we growing? 10,200 apartment units are in planning or under construction right now, which would grow the downtown apartment stock by a whopping 49 percent. Are we really growing that fast!?
The Colorado Real Estate Journal analyzed the jobs to apartment units ratio (how many new jobs are needed to fill one new apartment). With Denver’s jobs to apartment units ratio falling and more jobs entering the city, this means Denver’s population is shifting towards renters. The 10,200 new apartment units will may help Denver’s downtown keep up with the city’s influx of jobs.
“Every single neighborhood” will benefit from $45 million budget increase for Denver parks
Source: Andrew Kenney of the Denver Post
Whether it’s Denver’s ambitious Outdoor Downtown plan coming to life or simply repairs to the aging swing set at the park down the street from your home, big improvements are coming to Denver’s park system. The change comes in the form of over $45 million per year flowing into the parks department. The addition to the parks budget coincides with funding for nonprofits which provide mental health care, scholarships, and healthy food for children. It will all be paid for by an increase to the city’s sales tax of 0.66%, approved by 60% of Denver voters. Starting January 1st this parks budget boost will affect every neighborhood in the city.
Colorado’s population growth slowing, and that could spell economic trouble down the road
Source: Aldo Svaldi of the Denver Post
Say what??
Colorado residents are more than familiar with our state’s population surge in recent years. In fact, the state has grown nearly twice as fast as the U.S. population in the past decade.
Several factors are changing this:
- a slowing rate of state immigration,
- an aging population, and
- a birth rate below that of the 2.1 replacement rate
This leads to an uncertain future for Colorado’s economic and population growth. State demographer Elizabeth Garner offers further analysis and potential solutions in the full article.
So Much for the Starter House
Source: Ronda Kaysen of the New York Times
Imagine yourself a couple years into a solid career. With a few dollars saved up and a strong sense of belonging in your city, you decide it’s time to become a homeowner. Many of you reading are likely in this exact situation; with your dream home, a few kids, and several pay raises away, you’re looking for a starter home. Fit for your current lifestyle, this is a home where you plan to live for 5-10 years before moving into something “better.” It’s a reasonable plan, and even likely what your parents did.
However, this plan may not work out quiet the way you envision. With a rising interest rates, limited properties for sale, and rising sale prices, Americans are staying in their starter homes for longer. Are you are in the market for your first home? Are you trying to decide between a move or a renovation? Check out the full article to get versed in this trend.
Housing Market Slows, as Rising Prices Outpace Wages
Source: Ben Casselman of the New York Times
Denver residents are familiar with soaring housing prices and construction visible in almost every corner of our city. While the economy is in great shape, analysts believe the housing market is experiencing a plateau because the prices are finally at a level higher than most middle class buyers are willing to pay. Housing prices are up roughly 8% over the past year, showing growth at a declining pace. With average hourly wages up 6% over the past year, this trend makes sense. Economics writer Ben Casselman delivers further insight and figures in the full article.
Dark Clouds Gather over the US Housing Market
Source:Rana Foroohar of the Financial Times
The analytics team at Love Your Hood has recorded stagnant growth in the Denver housing market in the past few months — a trend that is apparent across the country. This is especially the case in the United States’ hubs of economic growth. But why, with a roaring economy and unemployment at its lowest level in over 45 years is the real estate sales and construction beginning to slow? The housing market growth over the past few years has been so strong that it is now beginning to outpace most consumers’ ability to afford housing.
Nearly two years in the making, Brighton Boulevard makeover expected to supercharge RiNo growth
Source: Joe Rubino of the Denver Post
In the late 1940’s, Harold Hill opened his farm machinery business at 3100 Brighton Boulevard. At this time, the street was a dusty two-lane strip with warehouses and a foundry. The business is now Do-It-Ur-Self Plumbing & Heating Supply, owned by Harold’s grandson, Rick Hill. Over that time, Rick has seen the neighborhood transform from an industrial park to a vibrant hub of business, culture, and art.
On Brighton between 30th and 38th streets more than $55.8 million in commercial construction has been permitted. Hill calls Brighton: “one huge craps table.” While the city boasts the public infrastructure investment as kickstarting the surge of private investment, local developers Mickey and Kyle Zeppelin mention it was actually the private investment and the formation of the RiNo Arts District that attracted visitors to the district. Eventually, backing from the City of Denver followed. Overall, this largely collaborative effort between the City and local business owners has created a corridor that is easily accessible while holding true to it’s uniquely industrial roots.
A brief timeline:
Late 1940’s: Harold Hill opened farm machinery business at 3100 Brighton Boulevard
2000: Zeppelin Development company buys the former cab company hub just off Brighton and begins to lobby the city for Brighton Boulevard improvements. The Taxi Community has been growing constantly since
2003: The City of Denver creates its River North Plan, a vision for the RiNo Art District
2013: The Source market hall, the first business of its kind, opens at 3550 Brighton Blvd. in the aforementioned foundry
2016: Brighton Boulevard is still a two lane street with no curbs, drainage, limited sidewalks
October 2016: Brighton Boulevard construction begins
Spring 2018: Phase 1 of construction, between 29th and 40th Street to be completed. The cost of the redevelopment is $41 million. The RiNo Art District neighborhood advocacy organization estimates at least $85 million in private projects have gone up in the surrounding area
The three years of road construction have come with several challenges. The largest of which being reduced accessibility due to construction, which has driven traffic away from RiNo. Rebel Restaurant, a block from Brighton and 38th Street has announced it will close. Comida, a beloved tenant of The Source and Love Your Hood, has seen its business fall by $800,000 from October 2016-2017.
Josh Peebles, President of RiNo branch of Collegiate Peaks Bank, believes the public improvements will open the door to larger entities bringing their business to the neighborhood. Collegiate Peaks has financed more than $100 million in RiNo projects.
With the combination of local government and business support, Hill’s “craps table” has become one of the most promising of Denver’s many growing neighborhoods.
U.S. New Home Construction Expected to Fall 300,000 Units Short of Demand This Year, More Pressure for Home-starved Markets Like Denver
Source: Joe Rubino of the Denver Post
The National Association of Home Builders forecast new construction at 909,000 homes in the U.S. — a whopping 300,000 homes short of their projected demand, based on data gathered from Redfin. In Denver, median home prices have been hovering around $500K, with homes still flying off the market soon after being listed. Labeling Denver as a “seller’s market” in today’s environment is quite the understatement.
The biggest factors behind the housing shortage:
Lumbar costs
The cost of lumbar has risen 62% since the start of last year. Why? Tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber have driven the costs of new construction up by roughly $9,000.
Local Regulations
Another factor behind the supply/demand gap are local regulations, such as the banning of slot-homes in Denver. These types of structures previously allowed developers to maximize the number of units on a lot by turning them sideways.
Migration
People, especially Millennials, love Denver. And they’re coming here in droves. Although there are signs that Denver’s popularity is waning, is it enough to ease the demand and close the gap in the housing shortage?
In the meantime, developers are focusing on attached developments, namely town homes. Last August in Denver, around 30% of new residential construction on the market were attached homes. With a changing demographic, economic, and regulatory environment in Denver, it appears that town homes and new urbanism will increasingly become the norm.