Real Estate Market

Numbers to know.

Interest Rates on the Rise

Denver Real Estate Market Snapshot - March 2018

Median home prices are still on the rise and it appears interest rates are starting to follow. In early February we started to see an abrupt increase in 30-year fixed interest rates. The Fed indicated there will likely be three rate hikes this year and they are starting to make good on their promise.

INTEREST RATES

Interest rates are slowly but surely making their way back up to 2013 rates. One thing to note are the peaks and valleys that happened in 2013. We will be anxiously watching for any repeated trends over the next 12 months. If rates do ease, I would expect to see a small surge in purchases for those trying to time interest rate movements. That wouldn’t be a welcome addition to the buyer demand we are currently seeing.

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgages 2013-2018

Coming in hot at 4.4%, the current interest rate is at it’s highest since February 2014. This is a 0.24% increase from the interest rate in March 2017 (4.20%). That equates to an increase in the interest payment per month of 23 bucks per $100k borrowed.

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgages Previous 12 Months - March 2018

But don’t worry, this is still incredibly low, especially when you compare it to the rates that the Baby Boomers bought their homes for — over 16%!

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgages 1972-2018

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

Average days on market is the same as it was this time last year. In Denver County, homes are currently on the market for an average of 26 days. In December it was 37, which is an indicator of a seasonal slowdown. But now, things are starting to pick up and we desperately need inventory. Good homes are being snatched up quickly and over list price. Like $40k over list price!

Average Days on Market | Denver County | March 2018

Comparing “apples to apples” the average days on market are tracking  the same or slightly downward for most counties, the exception being Broomfield.

Average Days on Market | Denver Metro Area | March 2018

 

INVENTORY

1.2 months of housing inventory. That’s what we currently have in Denver County. Just a reminder: 6 months of inventory is what our market needs to even out and we haven’t seen that much inventory in years.

Average Housing Inventory Denver Metro Counties March 2018

The amount of homes on the market have decreased by -0.7% since this time last year. In Denver County, 1,311 homes were listed and 1,109 homes sold this March. In March 2017, 1,482 homes were listed and 1,117 sold. It’s not that big of a difference but we need all the homes we can get!

Average Number of Homes for Sale in Denver County 2007-2018

MEDIAN PRICE RANGE

March saw the median sale price for all residential properties (attached + detached) in Denver hold steady at $425k from the previous month. Attached properties were hitting the median at $375k and detached at $471k .

Median Home Prices Denver County 2007-2018

This time last year, the median price range for detached and attached properties was $393k. That is a $32k increase from last year, a 8.1% appreciation rate. This is proof that Denver homes are continually increasing in value at an above normal appreciation rate.

Median Home Prices Denver Metro Counties March 2018

Tight Inventory Driving Home Prices Higher in Denver

Inventory is at an all time low. Again. And the median price range is at an all time high. Again. The median price for a single-family, detached home is now at a staggering $455k, which is an 11.5% increase from this time last year. With our continual low inventory, homes are still flying off the market, selling in an average of 29 days. Last year? Homes stayed on the market just two days longer. A (small) ray of sunshine: mortgage rates are holding steady.  There was a slight decrease to 4.03% in February from 4.17% the year prior. In payment terms, that will save you roughly $30 a month on a $455k home.

Lower interest rate = more buying power.

Don’t hold out too long. With the Fed increasing rates, mortgage experts are hinting the average 30-year mortgage rate will be closer to 5% by year end.

2017 Denver Neighborhood Real Estate Stats

2017 was another wild year for Denver real estate. If there were three ways to describe it, it would be: low inventory, low days on market, and multiple offers. All three descriptors attributed to rising home prices and frustrated buyers who are getting priced out of the market.

The Most and Least Expensive Denver Neighborhoods

The median sales price for all of Denver County reached $395k in 2017; a number that has nearly doubled from $200,000, just ten years ago. Hilltop ranked the most expensive neighborhood, with a MSP of $1,115,000 and Goldsmith ranked the most affordable with an MSP of $143k. Breaking it out further:

  • 31% of Denver’s neighborhoods have an MSP of greater than $500,000.
  • 64% of Denver’s hoods landed in the $250k-$500k range, and
  • 5% of neighborhoods had an MSP of less than $250,000, making it tough for buyers with a limited budget.

Most Expensive & Most Affordable Denver Neighborhoods of 2017

See Full List


Map of Median Sale Price by Denver Neighborhood

$143,000 – $1,115,000 is a large spread, there are still some affordable neighborhoods (and even a few opportunities to score a deal in more expensive neighborhoods). Either route you go, fast action, well crafted offers, and of course, a strong offer price are required to come out on top of the negotiations when buying a place.

View map in larger screen here.


Denver Neighborhoods that Appreciated the Most + Least in the Last Year

One of the most common questions we get asked is, “which neighborhoods can we expect to appreciate the most in the upcoming years?” We can’t predict the future but we can rely on past market activity to give us a general direction of where we’re headed. (more…)

Denver Real Estate Market 2017 Recap

Denver Real Estate Market Update - 2017 Year-in-review

Let’s rewind, take a stroll down memory lane, and sift through 2017’s housing data…

Days on the Market and Inventory

The new year is here, but it forgot to bring new homes for sale along with it! The following two charts go hand in hand and help influence the median sale price. Notice any similarities? As buyer demand increases and the average days on the market decreases, inventory usually drops with it.

Dial back to 2012 and you can see we were in a neutral market and average days on the market were in the upper 60’s. Fast forward to the end of 2017 with inventory for detached, single-family homes at literally the all-time low. December saw a mere 800 detached and 839 attached homes (condos, townhomes) available for sale. That leaves Denver with a puny 1.5 months of inventory; still a strong seller’s market, with average days on the market lingering in the mid 20’s.

Average Days on Market in Denver County 2007-2017

Inventory, nothing new here…

And the best real estate agent quote from the last five years goes to… “it’s a seller’s market!” Barring any domestic or global financial crisis, our inventory will remain low until Denver focuses on creating more “affordable” housing (i.e. dense condo projects). The city and state leaders need to make condo defect law reform a top priority for 2018. Stop putting bandaids on it. It’s time for a complete overhaul with both sides coming to the table to find a compromise that spurs condo development. If we can add 10-12k apartment units this year, there is absolutely no reason why we can’t increase our condo unit delivery rate to half that number by 2020.

Average Months of Housing Inventory Denver County 2007-2017 (more…)

Denver Real Estate’s Seasonal Slowdown

Denver Real Estate Market Update - November 2017

There are two words to sum up the real estate market in November: seasonal slowdown.

Proof of this seasonal slowdown is in the amount of homes that were available for buyers to choose from, the average days that these homes stayed on the market, and the median price of a detached, single-family home.

Inventory was at an all time low, which is nothing new here! With only 1,427 homes listed in November, we had 1.3 months of inventory available in Denver. The average time that these homes stayed on the market was 30 days (in October it was 27).

Average Months Housing Inventory Denver County November 2016-2017

And let’s talk about prices. The median sales price for a detached, single-family home was $438,500, a $7,450 decrease from October. Although, that’s a welcomed breather from the continual price climb, it’s hardly enough to move the median price to a more affordable level.

Median Sale Price Denver Colorado Real Estate November 2016-2017

Usually the narrative about low inventory revolves around how quickly and how much over list price these homes sell, but this past month was a little different. Yes, we did see some awesome homes go quickly and over list price with multiple offers, but we also experienced our buyers not willing to pull the trigger on a home as quickly. Why? Because they just didn’t have many homes to compare them to. And since these homes stayed on the market longer, sellers were more willing to accept offers below the list price, which explains the decrease in median sales price.

So does this mean that Denver was in a real estate bubble after all and you should be worried about it finally bursting? We are pretty confident in saying no to that question. This seasonal slowdown is most likely just that: seasonal. And it is totally normal. We are in the busiest time of the year with all the holiday festivities of Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Years. If this year’s seasonal slowdown is anything like last year, the market will most likely keep slowing down over the next couple of months and then pick back up around March or April.

Now, if we could just get the snow to fall a little like the real estate prices have!

A Slowdown in the Denver Real Estate Market?

Denver Real Estate Market Update - September 2017

Anyone else noticing a slowdown in the market? I bet those are words you didn’t think you’d read! But it’s true… we’re starting to see homes stay on the market longer and the median sale price is creeping down. If this fall/winter is anything like last year, then we expect the peak slowdown to happen in February. Oh, and the inventory… well, that’s low too (but that’s old news). Even though we’re seeing an uptick in homes for sale since August, we’re still under two months of inventory and holding steady in this sellers’ market.

Denver Real Estate Market Update – August 2017

Denver Real Estate Market Update - August 2017

Months of inventory dropped 5.5% year over year. Average days on the market went up 20%. The median price for single family homes are up 11.8%. Why are homes sitting longer but everything else is trending toward an even tighter seller’s market?

One word, extremes. Buyers are circling the inventory like sharks, waiting for homes to hit. Homes in desirable ‘hoods, priced well, and in great condition are gone in a matter of days — sometimes hours. If a home hits the market and is passed over during the first week, it will likely remain on the market until action is taken by the seller (price drop, improvement, enticement, etc). Some sellers are overzealous and think the market is so hot they can just toss any crazy number on the listing and they will get an offer. The savvy buyer these days will only consider homes that are hitting now and rarely go back for a second look unless there is a substantial change in the listing.

Top Denver Neighborhoods in the First Half of 2017

Denver is still in a deep seller’s market. Lack of new inventory and continued buyer demand are keeping things tight as we go into the third quarter. The only cool down coming in the second half of 2017 is fall!

Union Station - LoDo | Denver, Colorado | Love Your Hood®
Union Station (LoDo) | Denver Neighborhood with the Most Expensive Square Footage

The Most + Least Expensive Denver Neighborhoods

When compiling the most expensive and affordable Denver neighborhoods, we found it helpful to analyze the list two different ways: one based on the median sales price and the other based on price per square foot. Why? When you think Country Club, you think of large houses and decent size lots. While this neighborhood boasted the highest median sale prices in the city, it doesn’t have the highest price per square foot. Instead, if you want to know the most expensive prices per square foot of real estate, check out the second list. Think of more urban, densely populated neighborhoods for this. While these homes may not be as large, each square foot of them is more expensive.

Based on Median Sale Prices

Don’t feel bad if you are scratching your head and saying to yourself, “Auraria, really?” We did the same thing, so we dug into the numbers to see what was up. This hood only has a few housing options, all of which are loft/condo units. With only four sales in the last six months (and one of them going for $1.9 million), there isn’t enough data to give a great representation of this neighborhood. We don’t expect to see it on the list next quarter.

Most Expensive + Most Affordable Denver Neighborhoods | Q2 2017 | Love Your Hood®

Map of Median Sale Prices by Denver Neighborhood (Q2 2017)

The map below sorts neighborhoods based on their median sale price for the second quarter of 2017. It’s a great tool to use when determining neighborhoods to focus on for your home search. Clicking on an individual neighborhood will show you the median sale price for that particular neighborhood.

View map in larger screen here.


(more…)

Denver Real Estate Market Update – June 2017

Hot summer, hot market.

Curtis Park, Denver | Love Your Hood

It’s hot, there aren’t a lot of homes available (some even without air conditioning), and buyers are frustrated. Sellers are continuing to make the rules and buyers are getting left out in the heat. Sound familiar?

Home prices are breaking records and would-be sellers are more worried about their replacement purchase than selling their current home. So, they opt to wait it out. The result: no inventory, increasing home prices, and homes continuing to fly off the shelf.

Inventory, yep I said it again

Average Months Housing Inventory Denver County 2007-2017

A quick glance at this chart doesn’t reveal much. From 2016 to 2017 the inventory numbers ticked down from 1.5 to 1.4 month. Not a huge surprise if you’ve recently been shopping for a home (you already know there aren’t many options out there). What caught my eye were June’s inventory numbers compared to 2016. The active (available) number of homes for sale in June 2017 compared to June 2016 was down 7.3% while the number of sold homes for the same time period went up 3.7%. That equates to 1.3 months of inventory for June which is putting pressure on our 1.4 month average for 2017. No surprise this is pushing median sale prices to record highs. (more…)